EQECAT Initial Post-Landfall Estimates Of Insured Onshore Losses From Hurricane Ikeadmin
EQECAT, Inc., the leading authority on extreme-risk modeling, Saturday morning said, based on current storm information provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), initial post-landfall estimated insured onshore losses from Hurricane Ike could range from $8 billion to $18 billion, primarily in the Texas counties of Brazoria, Harris, Galveston, Chambers and Jefferson.
This estimate is based upon initial observations of Hurricane Ike wind, wave and flood patterns. EQECAT’s estimates may be updated as additional information about the storm becomes available. Hurricane Ike caused significant flooding in and around Galveston Bay.
Hurricane Ike traversed the Gulf of Mexico offshore energy production area with maximum winds at a strong category 2 hurricane level, much lower than the winds observed from Hurricanes Rita, Ivan and Katrina. But wave heights from Hurricane Ike were larger than typically expected from events of this size. Damage is likely for older platforms in shallow water. Deep water platforms are less likely to be severely damaged. Newer platforms, designed to more rigorous standards, in shallow water, as well as deep water, also are less likely to be severely damaged, EQECAT said.
“Onshore, flooded pumping stations and refineries are expected to impede immediate resumption of energy production,” said Tom Larsen, senior vice president of EQECAT. “However, disruption isn’t expected to be extensive.”
Beyond wind damage to commercial, industrial and residential fixed structures, such as office buildings, factories, warehouses, and homes, EQECAT’s insured loss estimates include business interruption, as a result of the destruction of property; and demand surge, which occurs when the demand for products and services to repair damage significantly exceeds the regional supply. Thus, these products and services may have to be brought to the region quickly from distant points, resulting in additional costs for transportation, packaging and manufacture.
Excluded from EQECAT’s insured loss estimates are losses related to flooding, private and commercial automobiles and similar vehicles.
EQECAT Representatives Available For Commentary
Representatives of EQECAT, headquartered in Oakland, will be available to provide commentary. For additional information, please contact Eric Samansky, The Samansky Group, at 516-319-0858.
Energy Disruption Estimates Based Upon EQECAT’s Offshore Energy Model
EQECAT’s estimates of the impact on offshore energy were developed through its Gulf of Mexico Offshore Energy Model (OEM). This model helps oil and gas producers, insurers and reinsurers to manage hurricane risk for offshore assets. Currently, the model covers exposures in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The EQECAT OEM was launched in May 2007 and is based on rigorous science, engineering research, and robust mathematical methodologies.
EQECAT Software Enables Clients Worldwide To Assess, Manage Wide Range Of Risks
EQECAT and its parent ABSG Consulting Inc. (ABS Consulting) serve the global property and casualty insurance industry, major multinational corporations and financial institutions. EQECAT is known as the technical leader and innovator in the development of analysis tools and consulting services to quantify exposure to natural and man-made catastrophic risk.
Through its extreme-risk modeling software platform, WORLDCATenterprise™, EQECAT enables clients to assess and manage potential damage and loss from wind, earthquakes, flood, wildfire, and terrorism, among other perils. WORLDCATenterprise™ includes 177 natural hazard software models for 89 countries spanning six continents.
EQECAT was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Oakland, California. For additional information, please visit www.absconsulting.com and www.EQECAT.com.